In a remarkably similar pattern to the 2006 final, Sunday's French Open final showed that 'El Rey del Clay' is inside Federer's head.
It's been a few days since Rafael Nadal won his third consecutive French Open title by defeating Roger Federer in four sets, and I can't shake off this feeling of deja vu. With a few exceptions, wasn't this just about the same match we saw in 2006? That thought prompted me to go back and re-read what I wrote about the 2006 final, and I discovered that other than a few factual updates, the general gist of the article would be valid for this year's championship match. So what does that tell us about Federer's approach to this match, based on his 2006 experience? Is he stubborn enough to think that he can defeat Nadal from the baseline or does Rafa do such a good job of controlling points from the backcourt that Roger can't attack successfully? Did his victory in Hamburg give him a false sense of confidence coming into Paris? Merely suggesting that Federer needs to attack and dictate play more is probably over-simplifying the strategy required to beat the 21-year-old Spaniard. Nadal's speed and strength make him an extremely difficult player to attack on clay and that has to weigh on Federer's mind when it comes to shot selection. However, in the matches in which Federer has been successful against Nadal on clay - Rome 2006 and Hamburg 2007 - he played a more attack-oriented style of play that paid dividends. Why not try that in Paris? Why not commit to an all-out attack? On Sunday, he did it for a brief period and his effort was rewarded with a second-set triumph. He was nine of ten in his net approaches in that set and he used his slice backhand effectively to attack the Nadal backhand. It appeared that he had found the key to winning the match in the second set, but a poor start to the third set took the wind out of the Swiss' sails. He never recovered from that moment and Nadal's physical style of play would dominate the rest of the day. The Federer we saw in the second set never reappeared and in his place we were left with a man who seemed content to play the match from the baseline to its inevitable conclusion – a Nadal victory. So for the second year in a row, the championship match at Roland Garros was disappointing from a drama perspective. Federer couldn't stick to the aggressive game plan that he had verbally committed to before the match and he left his fans exasperated and disappointed. But let's give credit to El Rey del Clay because he certainly deserves it. The physically imposing Nadal proved that the ending of his win streak on clay in Hamburg meant nothing. It was simply time to start a new streak and Roland Garros provided courts that were far friendlier to his game than those in Germany. He wore down Federer both mentally and physically, and that's no easy feat. Federer may have claimed to be fitter and stronger than the world's No.2, but the visual evidence was to the contrary. By beating Federer for the third straight year in Paris, Nadal may have also proved that he is in Federer's head on this surface. Invariably, the Swiss master struggles to play well against Rafa on clay and admitted in his post-match interview that playing against the young lefty is awkward. Those aren't the words of supreme confidence that we usually hear from the world's best player and they are indicative of his state of mind when it comes to Nadal. As he did in 2006, Federer will look to Wimbledon as the vehicle to re-establish his confidence and supremacy over the game. But in the back of his mind, could he be worried that Rafael Nadal is ready to go one step further than last year and steal his Wimbledon crown?
